Season Preview: Toronto Raptors

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The long-suffering Raptors traded for Rudy Gay to add some firepower to the offense in January. Gay brings scoring ability, but it’s often inefficient and coupled with mediocre defense. At $18 million per year there are legitimate questions about whether having Gay on the roster will cost the team the ability to win.

Combining him with Demar Derozan on the wing seems like a recipe for disaster, but plus minus data from the end of the season actually favors the duo. As bad as combining two shoot-first gunners seems on paper, it actually worked out pretty well due to a number of factors. First among them was the complementary players surrounding the two wings. Kyle Lowry has always been an effective starter, though his effort has come and gone under coach Dwane Casey.

The primary bigs left after the Gay deal (which saw promising forward Ed Davis sent to Memphis) also offered a surprisingly complementary skill set. Amir Johnson had off the charts plus minus numbers for the season, a function of his solid defense and athletic finishing at the rim, where he put in a stellar 68.7% of his shots.

Rookie Jonas Valanciunas progressed as the year went along as well, and is the best prospect for the Raptors going forward. As a young, skilled center, he offers a lot to the team. This was demonstrated in his rookie campaign with a solid per-36 line of 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks. He needs to cut his foul rate to make sure he can stay on the court, but moving forward Valanciunas should be a valuable centerpiece.

He offers a lot of upside, as does Gay (who had eye surgery in the offseason with the hope that actually being able to see the basket might improve his efficiency), and that will be the story for the Raptors this season. They have staked a lot on a high-variance squad, and new GM Masai Ujiri will not hesitate to put his stamp on the team given the opportunity.

Grabbing Ujiri from the cheapskate Nuggets may have been the best move the franchise could have made during the offseason. He put together an exciting and efficient team in Denver, and will likely look to maximize value. This means the likelihood of a salary-dump trade that hemorrhages talent is off the table, as Joe Dumars found out when he floated a laughably one-sided Gay-Rodney Stuckey deal early in the offseason.

This year the team could land anywhere from the playoffs to the bottom of the league. The projected starting lineup put together strong numbers in limited minutes last season, leading to the possibility that they can carry the team to the playoffs, and added depth in the form of newcomers Tyler Hansbrough, D.J. Augustin, Austin Daye, and Steve Novak will certainly help the cause. Unfortunately there is too much in the way for the Raptors to get over the top this season without a massive unexpected improvement by a member of their core, and that’s not something worth gambling on.

Predicted Finish: 32-50 | 3rd place in Atlantic Division | 11th place in Eastern Conference

 

Season Preview: Los Angeles Lakers

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Last season was brutal for Lakers fans who expected to compete for a title after adding Steve Nash and Dwight Howard via trades in the offseason. Instead Nash broke his leg, Howard struggled (by his standards) coming back from back surgery over the summer and clashed with Kobe Bryant and coach Mike D’Antoni before bolting to Houston in the offseason. Kobe and Pau Gasol, the incumbent stars, didn’t fare particularly well either. Gasol had knee trouble and was forced to play power forward, which left him shooting jumpers in lieu of using his once-devastating post game on offense and chasing much quicker players on defense.

Bryant actually had one of his best offensive seasons, first thriving in Mike Brown’s Princeton-style offense and then doing pretty well in D’Antoni’s pick and roll attack. Unfortunately he went down with an Achilles injury at the tail end of the season and L.A. was unceremoniously dispatched by the Spurs in four games.

Under the surface layer of alleged feuds and concern about the offense lied the actual problems for the team: no depth and bad defense. It turns out that a recovering Howard wasn’t enough to cover for the defensive apathy of Bryant and inability of Nash and Gasol. This season the bad defense from last season could turn truly comical as the loss of Howard and amnesty of Metta World Peace was answered with the signings of Nick Young and Chris Kaman.

The depth issue wasn’t exactly answered either, although the return of Jordan Hill should help a bit up front and the Jordan Farmar signing at least provides a bit of insurance in the backcourt.

It’s not immediately clear when Bryant will return, or what kind of shape he will be in after returning, but what is clear is that other players are increasingly unwilling to join his team. Somehow watching Kobe dribble around and allowing him to “teach you how to win” doesn’t appeal to players who have already seen success elsewhere and are no longer guaranteed to compete simply by joining forces with Bryant.

That leaves some tough questions for the front office to answer going forward. This season, however, seems fairly clear. Nash can still shoot and Gasol should get some benefit from posting up a bit more, but that duo will be disastrous defensively, as will almost any other combination the team can put on the floor. Oh, and Bryant will either love or strangle Nick Young. Sadly, that may be the most exciting storyline for this Lakers team.

They should be playing for next season, and might if the team gets off to a bad start, but for the time being the front office seems stuck on the idea that they can play out this season and make the playoffs, then turn around and re-sign Bryant and pick up a star free agent in the offseason. That has worked in the past, but the increasing shakiness of the front office and Bryant’s presence may be enough to short-circuit that plan and leave L.A. mired in a rebuilding effort for years.

Predicted Finish: 35-47 | 3rd place in Pacific Division | 11th place in Western Conference

Season Preview: New Orleans Pelicans

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My choice for the just-made-up weirdest offseason award, the Pelicans (nee Hornets) saw the presumptive 1st overall pick in the draft, Nerlens Noel, fall to them at the 6th pick, only to instantly flip him, along with next year’s first rounder, to the 76ers in exchange for Jrue Holiday.

This move was somewhat curious in the sense that most would consider New Orleans to be a few years away from contending for a playoff spot in the loaded West. As such, the team was expected to keep acquiring young assets until they saw more progress. Taking a flyer on Holiday, and sacrificing a potential lottery pick in the best draft in years in the process, doesn’t exactly fit with the popular process of bottoming out for years.

Holiday instantly improves the team, but not in the way you might think. Holiday’s All-Star berth came on the strength of an improvement in his offensive numbers that was partly fueled by taking a bigger role in the Philadelphia offense, but New Orleans got solid play out of Greivis Vasquez on that end. Holiday will bring a different dimension with his ability to get to the rim, but on the whole New Orleans had a league-average offense last season and is unlikely to see dramatic improvements there.

Holiday’s defense, on the other hand, will be a big improvement over the lead-footed Vasquez. While the offense last season was league average, the defense was pathetic. The hope is that internal improvement from Anthony Davis and the addition of shotblocker Greg Stiemsma will help pull that ranking up this season, but it will also help a lot to have a strong defender at the point of attack to keep pressure off the bigs. This will be especially important when sharpshooter Ryan Anderson is one of those bigs.

The rest of the perimeter core will be very interesting to watch. The Pelicans extended a high-dollar, multi-year offer to Tyreke Evans, which the Kings declined to match. Evans has had a rocky time in the league since his rookie of the year campaign with poor decision making, injury trouble, and a shaky jumper stunting his growth. Last season was a step back in the right direction, with improved shooting and playmaking bolstering an improved campaign. The mesh with Holiday in the backcourt will require some growth off the ball though, and that’s not something Evans has dealt with effectively so far in his career.

Further complicating matters is the presence of oft-injured shooting guard Eric Gordon, who is once again sitting out in the preseason, but is expected to be available at some point during the season. Theoretically Gordon could be a valuable safety valve for the offense, providing outside shooting and secondary ballhandling. The reality of who he is as a player and who this team needs are at odds, however. Gordon has done his best work with the ball, and his shooting has always seemed better than his numbers actually are. This assumes that he will actually take the court at some point, which is not necessarily a foregone conclusion. If he can get on the court and show something of his old game I would expect New Orleans to try to flip him for assets or cap relief.

It will be a challenge for Monty Williams to find a way to get Holiday, Evans, and Gordon enough time with the ball without sacrificing looks for Davis and Anderson, but ultimately the offense should be fairly effective. Evans has indicated a willingness to come off the bench, and there is enough peripheral offensive talent with guys like Anthony Morrow and Jason Smith that they should finish in the top half of the league in efficiency.

The defense will really determine whether the team will be thinking about the playoffs or regretting giving up their first-rounder, and my bet is that it will be the latter. Stiemsma is a nice addition as a shot blocker, but he is unlikely to be able to play huge minutes. Improvements from Davis and an updated scheme would have a bigger effect, but I that New Orleans will have to wait another year or two to get a taste of the postseason.

Predicted Finish: 32-50 | 5th place in Southwest Division | 12th place in Western Conference

Season Preview: Boston Celtics

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Gone are the days of the Big 3, and in their place come a new wave of Celtics hell bent on securing a good pick in the 2014 draft. With the exception of Rajon Rondo and possibly Jeff Green, no one left on the roster belongs in an NBA starting lineup, and most shouldn’t even be in a rotation. Welcome to the Danny Ainge model for team building.

Ainge used this strategy to great effect in 2006-07, when the Celtics bottomed out by getting rid of many key players and holding out Paul Pierce with an injury late in the season in an attempt to land either Kevin Durant or Greg Oden. Of course that didn’t pan out, but Ainge shifted gears and acquired Ray Allen and then Kevin Garnett, managing to hold onto Pierce in the process. The key to that strategy was that Pierce stayed around as a building block.

Many are calling for Rondo to be traded to bolster the latest round of tanking and get some value in return for the mercurial point guard, but there may be a few reasons to hold onto him.

First, there’s no reason to believe that Rondo by himself will be able to generate that many wins. He is coming off surgery on his knee, which will likely limit his effectiveness early on. He is not much of a scorer, lacking a decent jumper and usually relying on his passing to affect the game, but passing can only go so far if the receiver can’t finish.

Perhaps more importantly, Rondo has never had a chance to be a leader on a team, and there’s a chance that with Pierce, Allen, and Garnett gone along with coach Doc Rivers that he will finally be able to take over a leadership role with the team. A lot of this will fall to new coach Brad Stevens to guide Rondo into such a role, but stranger things have happened. Rondo as team leader would likely pose less of a headache in the locker room if he truly views the team as his. Too often over the past few seasons the Big 3 have given the impression that he was not being viewed as an equal.

Keeping Rondo around would also have some benefits for the development of some of the young players on the team. Promising rookie Kelly Olynyk and second year forward Jared Sullinger would probably be helped along by having a steady point guard running their offense and getting them good looks instead of relying on the likes of Avery Bradley and Jordan Crawford to set them up. Crawford, along with Marshon Brooks, should be able to get something out of the experience as well simply by virtue of having to work off the ball a little more, depriving them of the opportunity to shoot on every possession.

This team is built to lose, and if they have a little too much success, or if Rondo simply isn’t in Boston’s long term plans, he could be shipped out, but it’s not a clear-cut matter.

The losing should come pretty easy for this squad of castoffs and unproven players. The likely potential bright spots are Olynyk and Green. Olynyk would do well to show his value offensively, which he will have to do while facing a lot more defensive attention than the average mid-1st rounder. If he shows solid rebounding skills and can score at a good clip his will have been a successful season.

Green’s success will be defined more by maintaining his sweet 3 point stroke from the second half of last season and by proving he can do a little when he puts the ball on the floor. If he does that and plays solid defense he will be worth something approaching what he gets paid.

Even if everything goes well for the individuals on the team, the ceiling is just too low for coach Stevens to push for the playoffs, and he will get a relatively low-key first season at the helm to work out the kinks in transitioning his coaching from college to the pros. Long term that could be the most important thing that can happen for this rebuilding Celtics team.

Predicted Finish: 24-58 | 4th place in Atlantic Division | 12th place in Eastern Conference

Season Preview: Charlotte Bobcats

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My thoughts on the Bobcats’ attempts to pull themselves off the floor of the NBA are already documented here, so I’ll avoid rehashing all of that. Team building strategies aside, this squad should prove to be very interesting on the floor.

The team’s major free agent signing of the offseason, and the biggest talent acquisition since Michael Jordan took over the team, Al Jefferson looks to anchor the offense along with the improving Kemba Walker. Walker raised his shooting percentages from awful to mediocre, and in the process became an intriguing building block for a Charlotte team in desperate need of assets to build around. He still only shot 42.3% from the field and 32.2% from deep, but it’s fair to assume that the extra space provided by Jefferson will help free him for better looks. Neither is going to bring much to the table defensively, but that’s no change from last year’s team, which finished dead last on that end.

Surrounding these two will be an array of players who collectively have a lot left to prove. Rookie Cody Zeller went 4th overall in the draft, which many consider to have been a bit of a stretch. He will be attempting to make the transition from center to power forward, which may push him defensively into some tough matchups against smallball lineups and quicker 4’s. He has spent time expanding the range on his jumper as part of the transition, but it remains to be seen how smoothly he will be able to move into the NBA.

Last year’s top pick, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, is also trying to expand the range on his jumper, but instead of trying to take a step or two back from his college range, MKG basically just needs to start from scratch to add one. Last season saw him shoot nine 3 pointers total, making two. This is ridiculous for a modern wing. MKG has shown some talent and is a solid finisher at the rim, but a low scoring rate and poor shooting are major roadblocks to his career. Even without an outside shot he can be a useful rotation piece, but the future-Hornets need more than that from their picks.

Both of these guys should benefit on offense from the presence of Big Al, and given that Bismack Biyombo could practically be left alone on that end last season the offense should be expected to make some solid strides. Second-half star Gerald Henderson will also be able to take advantage of the added space, and will be able to keep defenses honest when they inevitably double Jefferson in the post.

This is all well and good, and the offense could jump from 28th to something like 20th if things go well, but that defense will likely be as bad as ever. It’s enticing to say that replacing Biyombo with Jefferson might make the defense even worse than it was last season, but that’s ridiculous – these guys can’t possibly be any worse. Biyombo is an overrated defender due to his shot-blocking and lingering pre-draft hype, but he is essentially fighting for his career at this point. The team was just as bad with him on the court last season as when he was on the bench, and he is a massive liability on offense, making him a pretty solid example of how talent does not always equal production, but a bad example of a rotation player.

There is a lot of work to do for GM Rich Cho in continuing to pull Charlotte out of the cellar, but there are some interesting pieces in the mix already. Another lottery trip lurks in the team’s future, but the pieces are in place to make a playoff run in a year or two with a little much overdue luck.

Predicted Finish: 22-60 | 4th place in Southeast Division | 13th place in Eastern Conference